Penrith’s once brittle and inexperienced defensive systems have improved throughout the regular season to have the Panthers just inside the Top 8 rolling into NRL Round 17. They began the year conceding first points early in most games but as combinations and cohesion develops, we’re seeing more of the best version of this Penrith side.
Canterbury are in the middle of adding a few strings themselves, namely around Lachlan Galvin in the #17 jumper. I like the Bulldogs to make a target of Blaize Talagi on Penrith’s left edge but I’m happy to back the defending champs to keep this close.
Tom Trbojevic’s move to the centres may be just as much about Reuben Garrick’s defence as it is Lehi Hopoate’s involvements in the jockey position. Overall, it’s an improvement on paper for a Manly side that is running out of time to get things right.
Wests are without Jahream Bula here which is a major loss to an attack that is struggling to get things right in the lead up. Tackle busts and offloads are great in yardage but Wests dynamic middles are repeatedly disrupting the Tigers good-ball attack.
Newcastle made their own luck last week to run down a fatiguing Redcliffe side. I’m not sure Canberra offer up as many looks here as the Dolphins did, though. Kaeo Weekes will continue to be a kick target for Newcastle’s outside backs but in a grind, this is Canberra’s to lose.
Without Fletcher Sharpe and Hudson Young on either side of the field, I like the Raiders to drag this one out and win it with their defence.
New Zealand have been one of the most resilient teams in the NRL this season but couldn’t overcome multiple injuries on their right edge last week. Luke Metcalf appears to be carrying a niggle and will be a spot for Ezra Mam, Reece Walsh and a growing Broncos attack in this one.
Winning from behind last week was a new look for Brisbane and I think they can kick on here.
Jason Ryles stocks continue to climb given what he’s producing with this current Eels roster. To post 36 points without either half last week is a testament to what Parramatta are doing in the lead up; high completions with the ball and low missed tackles without it.
St George play a similar style but it’s the Eels with more repeatable actions in their attack right now. That Junior Paulo hit-and-spin in particular is proving a problem.
South Sydney have named their first-choice backline for the first time this season. They’ve impressed to stay in the fight most weeks while lacking the class to win enough moments throughout.
With Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell featuring here though, I like the Rabbitohs to turn a few more of those moments into points and defend well enough from there.
Historically, most of the criticism around Nicho Hynes has been lazy, inaccurate and unfair. There are bigger issues than just Hynes in Cronulla right now, but some of his on-ball decisions and defensive movements are a concern while the Sharks struggle around him.
It’s ominous to think what Melbourne will do to Cronulla’s right edge here. No attack in the NRL is better at targeting a weakness in the line, and the spaces around Hynes are just that.
The cracks are growing wider through North Queensland’s patchy middle. There was evidence of this earlier in the season but the Origin period has further exposed the issues for Todd Payten right now; the best attack in the NRL on its day will never offset a defence that leaks 30+ points per game on average.
The Gold Coast are impossible to tip this season but they might just have enough through Tino & Co to bounce back on home soil.