NRL Best Bets | Round 16

NRL Best Bets | Round 16

Wests Tigers
vs
Canberra Raiders
10:00pm, Friday | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Wests Tigers (+8.5) line, Sunia Turuva try 

It’s difficult to bet against Canberra right now given what their attack is producing each week. Continuity has been to the benefit of the Raiders to begin the year and while it’s only a minor change here, Savelio Tamale leaves a sizable hole on that left wing. He and Seb Kris have been consistent contributors to Canberra’s yardage game and IT attack while making some smart decisions off the ball too.  

It presents Sunia Turuva and the Tigers with an opportunity down that edge if they can get it right.  

New Zealand Warriors
vs
Penrith Panthers
5:00pm, Saturday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Tips: New Zealand Warriors 13+ , Roger Tuivasa-Sheck try, Chanel Harris-Tavita try 

Origin has ravaged both team lists here but it’s the Warriors at home with a significant advantage on paper. Their high-percentage, patient brand of football profiles well against an inexperienced Panthers side that has struggled to remain disciplined and composed under pressure.   

Given how Luke Metcalf and Wayde Egan are controlling the ball for the Wahs right now, this only reads as a big win at home.  

Dolphins
vs
Newcastle Knights
7:30pm, Saturday | HBF Park, Perth
Tips: The Dolphins win 13+ , Herbie Farnworth try 

Fresh off a statement win in NRL Round 15, I’m happy to be with the Dolphins evolving attack again here.  

I’m a broken record at this point, but what Isaiya Katoa is doing on the ball right now is unlike anything we’ve ever seen from a rookie half. His ability to change tempo and engage defenders is consistently putting the Dolphins strike weapons into positive involvements out wide.  

Newcastle welcome back some big names on the edges but it’s their middle that could struggle to contain Katoa and the Dolphins here.  

South Sydney Rabbitohs
vs
Melbourne Storm
9:35pm, Saturday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Alex Johnston try, Tyrone Munro try 

Without knowing who does or doesn’t backup from Origin II, this game is a nightmare to tip.  

Souths are staring down the barrel of four straight losses but their form hasn’t been nearly as poor as it reads on paper. Battling through contests without an established spine or connected backline each week, the Rabbitohs continue to find ways to stay in the fight.  

A returning Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker and/or Campbell Graham could provide the icing missing from the Rabbitohs attack right now.  

Brisbane Broncos
vs
Cronulla Sharks
4:00pm, Sunday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Cronulla Sharks win, Ronaldo Mulitalo try, Braydon Trindall try 

Cronulla scraped home for a much-needed win last week but confidence cannot be high in the Shire right now. Their once prolific attack has come to a shuddering halt as Nicho Hynes, Braydon Trindall and Will Kennedy struggle to create the cues they need to fire a shot with the ball.  

Brisbane’s erratic defensive movement may provide them with enough of those cues here though. ‘Madge’ is still searching for a winning formula in the pack and it’s putting pressure on their backline to produce points each week.  

Sharks in a scrap. 

Sydney Roosters
vs
North Queensland Cowboys
6:05pm, Sunday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Sydney Roosters win, Sandon Smith try, James Tedesco try 

How do the Cowboys respond here after collapsing against Redcliffe last week? Their attack has kept them in the Top Eight to start the year but there was plenty of evidence through the middle that a heavy loss like that was coming. 

Given what James Tedesco is prone to do around the ruck, I like Easts to target the same weaknesses that the Dolphins exposed last week. If he or Sandon Smith can get on the ball and over the ad line often enough here, the cracks will begin to show through North Queensland’s middle.  

Parramatta Eels
vs
Gold Coast Titans
8:15pm, Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Gold Coast Titans win, Jayden Campbell try, AJ Brimson try

It’s no surprise the Titans look much improved with Kieran Foran back in the halves. His experience and control is exactly what the Gold Coast need to curb the enthusiasm of AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell in attack.  

With both Eels halves missing here and the Gold Coast desperate to climb off the bottom of the NRL ladder, this only reads as a Titans win. Jason Ryles has installed plenty of resilience into this Parramatta outfit but this is a daunting task for a very inexperienced spine.