The 2025 State of Origin Series is finally here and there’s plenty for New South Wales Blues fans to feel confident about heading to Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night.
That being said, the Queensland Maroons famously do their best work as underdogs and as a Blues fan myself, it’s concerning to see Billy Slater’s squad written off so early…
Deciding Factors
Cooper Cronk offered some great insight on The Matty & Cronk Show this week into not only Queensland’s current gameplan, but also how the Maroons likely approached games during their decade of dominance.
In summary, he predicted QLD to embrace the grind and absorb pressure with their defence with one goal in mind; to be in the fight at the 75th minute mark. From there, Cronk is happy to back one of Cameron Munster, Kalyn Ponga, Daly Cherry-Evans, Harry Grant or Tom Dearden to come up with something special and win it for the Maroons.
Sound familiar? It’s exactly how the likes of Cronk, Smith, Slater and Thurston led Queensland to an historic eight straight Origin series; set it up early to win it late.
The challenge for QLD this time around will be to replicate that strategy without the cohesion and familiarity of previous years. Although there are plenty of reps between DCE, Munster and Grant, the Maroons have a new face at fullback in Kalyn Ponga while Ben Hunt misses his first Origin match since Game I, 2021. It’s still a ridiculous spine on paper, but those new combinations will be tested under pressure and once fatigue sets in.
The inclusion of Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero on the bench complements QLD’s expected gameplan.
Both are mobile, high-effort players who’s best qualities show up in the minor details; inside pressure, line speed, kick chase, ruck control etc. If the Maroons want to be in a position to win it late, Loiero and Fermor are exactly the type of players they need working through the middle-third.
For New South Wales, they will head to Suncorp Stadium with a plan to kick QLD into submission.
In Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses, the Blues have two of the best general play kickers in the NRL to finish their sets and apply pressure throughout the contest. They can perfectly complement a productive back five and pack to both win field position and capitalise on it once they get there.
Expect Moses to do the bulk of yardage kicking while Cleary gets on the ball close to the line and kicks low on the left edge or high on the right for Stephen Crichton and Zac Lomax. Kalyn Ponga’s positioning will be constantly tested with two genuine short kickers on either side of the field every time NSW work into good-ball.
Battle of the 9s
No players will touch the ball more on Wednesday night than Harry Grant and Reece Robson. Both dummy-halves are crucial to their state’s attacking systems and will be instrumental in how they use the ball.
For the Blues, Robson’s selection over the likes of Api Koroisau (or Wayde Egan, shoutout) speaks volumes about how NSW want to attack.
With Isaah Yeo offering elite middle service and both Cleary and Moses threatening as run and pass threats, Robson’s role as a distributing hooker feels locked in. Whenever the Blues generate some ruck speed and fold the defensive line in towards the ball, look for Robson to fire lasers off the deck and get NSW’s halves over the ad line on the edges.
With Crichton and Latrell Mitchell lurking on the tram lines and Moses in particular a running threat himself, it makes sense for the Blues to shift the ball when they earn the looks. The challenge for NSW’s new halves pairing will be to get the balance right between kicking the door down and hitting the edges. If they find that balance though, I like the Blues to execute their set pieces in attack.
For QLD, Harry Grant brings a completely different skillset to the ruck. Where the Blues will presumably let the ball sing when they have QLD rolling backwards, the Maroons profile well to continue flooding that ruck and playing direct.
Like all running hookers, Grant does his best work off a quick play-the-ball. He’s the best in the NRL at manipulating markers and ruck defenders to create those quick play-the-balls and can hurt you with a pass, kick or run from there.
If and when the Maroons start rolling through the middle, look for QLD to push up around the ruck and support Grant when he darts himself.
The likes of Munster, Ponga, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Dearden all profile nicely in these actions and in the second-phase; Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Pat Carrigan and Trent Loiero are all prolific offloaders of the footy and could be the catalyst for a game-winning moment for the Maroons.
The Point of Difference
It’s a tired headline at this point, but Latrell Mitchell is an ominous presence for the NSW Blues out in the centres.
‘Trell Mitt’ will line up against a new-look QLD right edge of (presumably) Reuben Cotter, Cherry-Evans, Robert Toia and Valentine Holmes in Game I and it’s undoubtedly where the Blues will play towards in attack.
While Toia impressed to contain Mitchell in clubland back in NRL Round 5, the Rabbitohs didn’t have a genuine half on the field to create positive looks for their star centre on that night.
On Wednesday night, the NSW Blues will have two genuine halves to do exactly that.
Mitchell is quite simply a nightmare to defend in the centres. Equally happy running over you as he is cutting back inside or burning you to a kick in behind, Mitchell’s greatest asset in the centres is arguably his assist ability.
Block shapes on the two-man (centre) are trending in the NRL right now and we can expect the Blues to set up a few looks for Mitchell in good-ball. Designed to sit the defending centre with two players running at him, the Blues will try to force Toia and Val Holmes into a decision on their right edge.
If Toia sits and Holmes jams, Mitchell is capable of passing to his winger before, at or even through the line. If the Blues get it right, Brian To’o could be in for a fun evening.
Tips
Win: New South Wales Blues @ $1.65
First Try Scorer: Brian To’o @ $9.25
Anytime Try Scorers: Brian To’o @ $2.25, Latrell Mitchell @ $2.40
Man of the Match: Nathan Cleary @ $6.00