NRL Best Bets | Round 10

NRL Best Bets | Round 10

Parramatta Eels
vs
Dolphins
9:50pm, Thursday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Eithers team by 1-12, Isaiah Iongi try, Herbie Farnworth try 

The tempo of Isaiya Katoa vs the triple threat of Mitch Moses makes this one worth the price of admission alone. A halfback is only one player though, which makes this contest just as much about the pieces around Katoa & Moses here.  

The Eels have looked good adding Dylan Walker to their attack. He’s a genuine run threat while allowing Moses and Dylan Brown to get a little wider and challenge the line themselves. 

Redcliffe meanwhile continue to add nice layers to their attack (The Hammer’s trick shot try through the ruck in Magic Round was mean) but the Dolphins lack of defensive resilience is costing them once fatigue sets in.  

Newcastle Knights
vs
Gold Coast Titans
8:00pm, Friday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Tips: Newcastle Knights win, Dane Gagai try, Kalyn Ponga try 

On defence alone, this is Newcastle’s game to lose. That being said, their awful attack was made to look good by a decimated Rabbitohs outfit last week and they’ll get another few chances against an equally leaky Titans defence here.  

The Knights produced some promising looks from kick returns last week and it’s an area of concern for a Gold Coast outfit lacking a genuine fifth tackle kicker… 

South Sydney Rabbitohs
vs
Brisbane Broncos
10:00pm, Friday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Brisbane Broncos win, Payne Haas try, Selwyn Cobbo try

South Sydney’s injury toll worsens with Jye Gray (named on the bench for now) and Pete Mamouzelos – two of the Rabbitohs most consistent to begin the year – joining a ridiculous casualty ward.  

Even with Latrell Mitchell returning, this only reads as a Broncos win. Their size through the middle and speed on the edges spells trouble for a pieced-together Rabbitohs defensive line in this one. The Bunnies continue to put up a fight but it’s difficult to see them containing Brisbane’s power game for long enough here.   

Canberra Raiders
vs
Canterbury Bulldogs
5:00pm, Saturday | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Tips: Canberra Raiders win 1-12, Hudson Young try, Bronson Xerri try 

Two teams at the top of the ladder heading into NRL Round 10 for very different reasons.  

 

Canterbury’s defence ranks a comfortable best in the competition while they continue to add layers to their attack. Toby Sexton’s ability to adjust on the run last week based on what the opposition presented was impressive, and he knows he’ll get more than enough looks each week behind a disciplined and dominant pack.  

The Raiders work equally hard in defence but have relied on their insane attack to register seven bold wins to begin the year.

In what profiles as a heated contest, this will come down to who can hold their nerve longest.  

St George Illawarra Dragons
vs
New Zealand Warriors
7:30pm, Saturday | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Tips: New Zealand Warriors win, Marata Niukore try 

Another Magic Round, another brave performance from the Wahs. To not score a try in the second half and still hold off a confident Cowboys attack is a credit to the defensive resilience and connection Andrew Webster has instilled in this Warriors side. 

With the ball, Luke Metcalf is reaping the benefits of playing behind a dynamic and dominant forward pack. He’s doing a nice job of spotting ques in the line and constructing ways to expose them; principally through his running game.   

I love what the Dragons are doing on their left edge and have been waiting to see Lyhkan King-Togia in first-grade for a long time. On current form though it’s New Zealand who profile better in the grind.   

North Queensland Cowboys
vs
Penrith Panthers
9:35pm, Saturday | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Tips: Penrith Panthers win 1-12, Brian To’o try 

The bookies remain hesitant to rule out the four-time defending champs with Penrith firming as comfortable favourites early in the week. Brisbane is a big fresh scalp in the back pocket but it was only one game and the challenge now for the Panthers is to back it up.  

They won in NRL Round 9 on the back of improved discipline and defence. Finally able to absorb some pressure without the ball, we saw some very familiar looks from the Panthers attack in Magic Round.  

North Queensland have the attack to outscore anyone but if they meet this version of the Panthers on Saturday night, their gunslinger approach doesn’t profile so well.  

Melbourne Storm
vs
Wests Tigers
4:00pm, Sunday | AAMI Park, Melbourne
Tips: Melbourne Storm win 13+ , Ryan Papenhuyzen try 

As good as Wests have been to watch this year, they’re yet to be consistently punished for the high-risk options they take with the ball. Back-to-back wins against Cronulla and St George could have easily been losses had the Sharks and Dragons capitalised on the looks Wests offered them.  

Melbourne won’t miss those looks. They beat themselves in Magic Round and are the easiest rebound team to back in the NRL right now. Expect them to make a target of Terrell May around the ruck before finding points on the edges.  

Manly Sea Eagles
vs
Cronulla Sharks
6:05pm, Sunday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks win, Addin Fonua-Blake try, Nicho Hynes try 

Cronulla finally won an ugly game last week and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Nicho Hynes defended well and threatened with a run first before finding three nice assist passes once fatigue set in. The Sharks have been guilty of playing too east-west at times but will like their chances against Manly’s middle here.  

The Sea Eagles ruck has been picked apart all season which is leaving their edges exposed and under pressure. The best version of this Sharks attack can play flat, fast and aggressive through the middle to kick right through the front door here.