US Basketball Best Bets | Monday 7 April

US Basketball Best Bets | Monday 7 April

New York
vs
Phoenix
11:10am, Monday
New York to Cover the Line (-9) @ $1.90

New York are striving to hold onto the third seed in the East, while timing is running out for Phoenix to scrape into the West’s play-in tournament.

New York (49-28) have emerged from an inconsistent period to win four of their last five. They bounced back from a 124-105 loss at Cleveland with a 121-105 victory in Atlanta yesterday, spurred by Karl-Anthony Towns (30 pts, 11 reb).

Phoenix (35-42) has sunk to a five-game losing streak through a difficult section of their schedule, going down to Boston, Minnesota, Houston, Milwaukee and Boston again by an average margin of 19.2 points. They are 11th, two games shy of the play-in spots.

Devin Booker scored 37-plus points in the last two defeats, but Kevin Durant missed both games and won’t be back tonight.

After losing nine straight to Phoenix, New York have won three of the teams’ last four encounters – including a 138-122 victory in Arizona earlier this season with Jalen Brunson (36 pts, 10 ast) on fire.

Brunson has been sidelined for 15 games but is a chance of returning here. New York is just 5-8 overall on no rest, but KD’s absence makes it very difficult for Phoenix to arrest their slide against another top side.

Denver
vs
Indiana
12:10pm, Monday
Indiana to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90

Denver are shooting for a 10th straight win over Indiana as the teams jostle for top-six position in their respective conferences at the pointy end of the regular season. Both teams sit fourth with near-identical records.

Denver (47-31) have more at stake, sitting half a game behind the third seed…and just half a game ahead of eighth in the congested West standings.

They have also lost their last three – in double overtime to Minnesota (140-139) despite 61 points from Nikola Jokic, San Antonio (113-106) and Golden State (118-104).

Indiana (46-31), meanwhile, have a three-game buffer either side of them and have won 11 of their last 14 – including their last three against Sacramento (111-109), Charlotte (119-105) and Utah (140-122) with Myles Turner and Tyrese Haliburton prominent.

Aaron Gordon (25 pts) and Jokic (18 pts, 9 reb, 19 ast) steered Denver to a 125-116 win at Indiana in February.

Victories over good teams have been somewhat elusive for Indiana despite their impressive run, but they are 10-10 overall as an away underdog. Denver are only 15-18-1 against the line as a home favourite and look to be giving away too much of a start in this one given their recent struggles.

New Orleans
vs
Milwaukee
12:40pm, Monday
SGM – Milwaukee to Win and Giannis Antetokounmpo to Score 30+ Points @ $2.06

New Orleans and Milwaukee square off at Smoothie King Center – the first of two clashes between the teams in the space of four days.

Second-last in the West, New Orleans (21-56) is providing little more than nuisance value at this stage of the season, but they have picked up wins over the likes of LA Clippers and Minnesota in recent weeks.

New Orleans are coming off road losses to LA Clippers (114-98) and LA Lakers (124-108) in the past four days.

Milwaukee (43-34) are fifth in the East with a slim chance of rising a spot, while Detroit are just half a game behind them. They have won their last three, at home against Phoenix (133-123), and on the road against Philadelphia (126-113) and in overtime against Miami (121-115).

Giannis Antetokounmpo racked up 35-plus points in the trio of victories and big triple-doubles in the latter two, but a shoulder niggle sees him listed as questionable for this one.

Milwaukee have won four of the teams’ last five encounters, but New Orleans prevailed 107-100 at home last season.

Milwaukee are only 9-12 against the line as an away favourite, but they’re nevertheless the more appealing option to cover with a seven-point start – particularly if Giannis plays.

Golden State
vs
Houston
12:40pm, Monday
SGM – Back Steph Curry to Score 20+ Points and Jalen Green to Score 20+ Points @ $2.03

Western Conference contenders Golden State and Houston wrap up their five-game regular season series at Chase Center.

Golden State have won 16 of the teams’ last 17 clashes. But after Golden State’s OT win in Houston in November and a low-scoring win at home in December, Houston grabbed a drought-breaking one-point victory at Toyota Center six days after the latter loss.

Golden State won 105-98 in Houston in mid-February – with both sides making a charge up the West standings since.

Houston (51-27) have all but wrapped up the second seed after winning 14 of their last 16, including wins over lowly Utah (143-105) and West leaders Oklahoma City (125-111) so far in April. Jalen Green put up 34 points against OKC, while Jabari Smith Jr pulled down 17 rebounds.

Golden State (46-31) are on a knife’s edge with five games remaining, sitting fifth but only half a game behind third and half a game ahead of eighth.

They are on a five-game winning run, however, beating fellow top-four hopefuls Memphis (134-125), LA Lakers (123-116) and Denver (118-104) in their last three. Steph Curry has caught fire, scoring 52 points against Memphis and 36-plus in Golden State’s next two games.

Golden State are five-point favourites at home and with more on the line. Houston is 10-6 ATS as an away underdog, but this one is too close to call with both sides in excellent form.