Conceding an average 9.6 points per game, the Bulldogs defence currently ranks better than anything even Penrith managed throughout the last four years.
Dominating possession (55%; most in NRL), completions (81%, second best in NRL) and errors (59, least in NRL), the Bulldogs are in fact playing a very Panthers-style of football right now. They suffocate their opposition from siren to siren with a patient, resilient and purposeful approach; happy to win games in a grind or wait for the points to come late.
How they contain Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan will be a deciding factor here. Brisbane rely on their two marquee big men to generate most of the looks they want in attack. I’m happy to back a Broncos upset.
I love what St George-Illawarra are doing down their left edge this year. Clint Gutherson (6 assists), Kyle Flanagan (2 assists), Val Holmes (5 assists) and Luciano Leilua (1 assist) are all capable of pulling a different trigger down an edge that’s produced 54% of the Dragons total points.
While Easts continue to stay in the fight, they don’t have the repeatable actions in their toolkit that St George play with right now.
Newcastle’s attacking woes continue. Kalyn Ponga is getting double marked when he plays on the ball and runs out of room on the edges by defending centres and wingers who get high in the line. It’s creating intercept opportunities for the opposition and I like the Warriors edges to do a job here.
Mitch Barnett is owning the Wahs middle with wonderful support from the bench. They’re creating plenty of looks for a young halves pairing who are doing enough while improving every week. Up the Wahs.
South Sydney have never won at AAMI Park but they get Melbourne at as good a time as any this week. Injuries have ravaged both squads but the Bunnies have been figuring things out on the run all year and will be confident of keeping this close.
Latrell Mitchell is back at fullback which immediately makes both Rabbitohs wingers appealing try scorers. Souths have missed Mitchell’s pass selection from the jockey position and that’s where I’m looking here.
I’m still cool on the Cowboys this year but they get another winnable matchup this week against an injury-hit Titans squad. Tom Weaver was a spot for the Raiders to the tune for four tries last week and I like North Queensland to do the same through Tom Dearden and Jaxson Purdue.
The Cowboys left edge has been good for 60% of their total tries so far this season and it lines up against a Titans right edge that’s leaked 13 tries in six games.
Tips: North Queensland Cowboys (-8.5) line, Jaxson Purdue try, Jeremiah Nanai try, Tom Dearden try
Penrith tidied up their fundamentals last week and it culminated in a 40 point win over Easts. With 85% completions, nine errors and just four penalties conceded, the Panthers did the little things right to put Nathan Cleary into enough positive involvements in attack.
Tom Trbojevic’s return could not have come any sooner for a struggling Manly side. Their expansive attack has dried up to compound the pressure and invite errors and penalties to creep in. How much does Tommy Turbo improve this side? I’m happy to wait and see.
Isaiya Katoa is the form playmaker in the NRL right now to make Redcliffe look like a genuine finals side. The same can be said of a red-hot Raiders attack that continues to score unrepeatable tries every other week. Jamal Fogarty is the keel in a Canberra ship that thrives in the chaos.
It’s a tough road trip for a battered and bruised Dolphins side but the way Katoa is playing is undeniable. I can’t split this one; it’s going to be a cracker.
Cronulla looked as good as they have all year in NRL Round 7 by winning the ruck before firing a shot. Blayke Brailey finished with two or three try involvements as the Sharks found early points in the middle third before hitting the edges.
Some of Wests poor habits were exposed by Mitch Moses last week and I think Cronulla’s spine quartet can do the same here.