NRL Best Bets | Round 7

NRL Best Bets | Round 7

Manly Sea Eagles
vs
St George Illawarra Dragons
9:50pm Thursday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Tips: St George Illawarra Dragons 1-12, Mathew Feagi try 

Shane Flanagan’s Dragons have figured out what works for them this season. Their left edge through Kyle Flanagan, Clint Gutherson & Luciano Leilua is proving difficult to contain as they all pick up different options along a well drilled backline. 

Meanwhile, Manly’s attack is struggling. Tom Trbojevic is a big loss but that’s no excuse for failing to consistently put Lehi Hopoate into positive involvements on the tram lines last week. He’ll ice enough three-on-two’s if Daly Cherry-Evans can get things right in the lead up.  

On form, St George are the team to beat.  

Canterbury Bulldogs
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
6:05pm Friday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Either team win 1-12, Under 46.5 total points 

South Sydney had no right to be anywhere near North Queensland with 10 minutes to go last week. They continue to find ways to stay in the fight and while decimated again in NRL Round 7, they profile well in low scoring grinds like this one.  

Canterbury’s defence is superb to offset a fairly middling attack; it’s no secret they are leading the league thanks to the work they do off the ball. Matt Burton (and potentially Viliame Kikau) are big attacking inclusions but this Bulldogs team has never been a high-scoring one.  

Dolphins
vs
Melbourne Storm
10:00pm Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Melbourne Storm 13+ , Eli Katoa try, Grant Anderson try 

For the second week in a row, the Melbourne Storm attack put the result to bed well before kickoff. Their ability to identify and quickly expose a defensive weakness is frightening for a Dolphins line that has looked patchy to begin the year.  

Redcliffe all but shut-out the Panthers attack last week but was that more a reflection of their defensive improvements or Penrith’s own worries? Expect the Storm’s right edge to see plenty of ball in this one.  

New Zealand Warriors
vs
Brisbane Broncos
7:30pm Saturday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Tips: Jesse Arthars try, Ben Hunt try 

Brisbane were beaten physically by Easts in NRL Round 6 which doesn’t profile nicely for a New Zealand pack missing James Fisher-Harris here. We can assume a response from the Broncos middle this week and while the Warriors aren’t nearly as bad as that Storm loss suggests, their depth will be tested this week.  

The spaces around Marata Niukore were targeted by Melbourne and I’m expecting Brisbane to do the same. Jesse Arthars has been cleared to play and looms a likely try scorer again here.  

Sydney Roosters
vs
Penrith Panthers
9:35pm Saturday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Either team win 1-12, Thomas Jenkins try, Robert Toia try 

Forget the rhetoric around missing players or complicated systems; the Penrith Panthers are being served a bitter taste of their own medicine right now. They’re leaking early points which leads to scoreboard pressure which leads to errors – from rookie & experienced Panthers alike.  

The Roosters too are dealing with defensive lapses that have cost them winnable games. They impressed to do the little things well against Brisbane last week but the challenge now is to back it up.  

Gold Coast Titans
vs
Canberra Raiders
4:00pm Sunday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Tips: Gold Coast Titans win, AJ Brimson try 

Canberra continue their form as one of the more difficult teams to read in the NRL. While Parramatta were woeful, posting 50 points in the fashion they did was classic Raiders footy; Jamal Fogarty consistently makes smart decisions while Canberra’s high-risk, high-reward attack causes chaos around him.  

The Titans were taught a lesson for playing Beau Fermor out of position last week. With a better balanced pack named here, I like them to respond. AJ Brimson is relishing any ruck speed the Titans make late in halves and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is a huge inclusion around the ruck.  

Newcastle Knights
vs
Cronulla Sharks
6:00pm Sunday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Tips: Cronulla Sharks win, Ronaldo Mulitalo try, Dane Gagai try 

Newcastle’s attack has come to a spluttering halt after being on a slow-burn for what feels like years now. The pressure is on Adam O’Brien to find a way to get the most out of Kalyn Ponga before his contract rhetoric starts up again.  

Cronulla threw an extra 70 passes in NRL Round 6 after being contained by Canberra and Canterbury in consecutive weeks. They’re still looking for the right balance with the ball but get a nice chance to work out the kinks here.  

Wests Tigers
vs
Parramatta Eels
6:00pm Monday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Either team win 1-12, Jahream Bula try

It will be interesting to see how Wests respond to the Lachlan Galvin bombshell announcement this week. They did enough against a horrible Newcastle outfit in NRL Round 6 and get another winnable game here, but they’re yet to have their errors consistently punished.  

Parramatta aren’t the team to do it, though. Rudderless in attack and making too many errors as they work down the field, the Eels are putting too much pressure on their defence right now. Mitch Moses’s kicking game alone will considerably improve this Eels side but there should be enough points in the Tigers spine for the third week running here.