We can speculate all we like about the absence of guys like Jarome Luai or James Fisher-Harris in Penrith’s locker room this season. The reality is the Panthers rank second in the NRL for total errors, eighth for penalties conceded and fourth for missed tackles after five games played. Their systems are keeping them in contests but the defending premiers are leaving too many points out there and leaking too many of their own to start the year.
With Dylan Edwards back and a questionable Redcliffe defensive system in front of them, I’m taking the value in Penrith to bounce back here.
One of the more formulaic attacking systems in the NRL goes up against one of the most unpredictable attacking sides in this one.
St George have a variety of options to choose from down a long left-side backline. Their halves interchange nicely between first- and second-receiver to move the ball smoothly while Clint Gutherson (or occasionally a roaming Tyrell Sloan) provides the extra number out wide.
The Titans on the other hand are happy to attack from anywhere on the field. They create positive matchups for their big bodies in yardage to generate ruck speed or offloads to play on the back of. I like the Titans to respond here.
Easts ruck defence has been an issue in all games to begin the year and they come up against a red-hot Broncos ruck attack in this one.
Corey Paix is proving a magician behind a quick ruck in good-ball, orchestrating a variety of shapes designs to get a big body (Payne Haas or Xavier Willison) one-on-one with a smaller defender. I’m happy to search for some value in Brisbane’s pack here.
Two of the best attacking teams on their day coming off disappointing losses. The Sharks again failed to close out a winnable game while Manly’s inconsistencies in defence cost them in patches against the Storm last week.
Manly have played the better footy of these two clubs to start the year but I’m still high on Cronulla this season. If we can see a little more from Blayke Brailey around the ruck, the Sharks spine will get their chances out wide.
Latrell Mitchell into five-eighth gives the Rabbitohs a completely different look down their left edge in attack. His long pass threat will force defending wingers to stay wide which can create run opportunities for his centre and backrower.
The Cowboys have jagged back-to-back wins but I’m not convinced their early-season issues have been fully rectified. Their left edge through Tom Dearden and Jaxson Purdue is fast becoming a highlight however.
Zac Lomax is the one player Parramatta can’t afford to lose right now. The volume of work he gets through in yardage is crucial to generating what limited looks the Eels currently earn for themselves in attack.
In contrast, Ricky’s Raiders continue to play a unique brand of football. They repeatedly score via unrepeatable actions thanks to their constant movement and work off the ball. It’s no coincidence Canberra scores more highlight reel tries than any team in the NRL right now.
Melbourne put last week’s contest to bed in a five minute period midway through the first half. It’s frightening how quickly their spine can punish a chink in the defensive line and this will be a great test for an improving Warriors outfit.
New Zealand appear to be building their game around possession and field position. Their inefficiency in good-ball reads poorly on paper but it’s how they’re controlling contests that has most impressed to start the year.
I like Wahs with the head start here.
Wests got punished for not getting the little things right against Brisbane last week. That being said, their improvements with the ball can trouble a spluttering Newcastle attack in this one.
Kalyn Ponga’s involvements continue to be predictable in the second- or third-layer of a shift. He’s looked good popping up at first receiver but it’s easy enough to pick where the attack is going when KP plays on the ball.
In contrast, the Tigers have shown a willingness and ability to attack from anywhere on the field. There’s enough points in Wests spine to cause an upset here.