Melbourne fresh off a bye and Penrith off an uncharacteristic loss; this Grand Final rematch will be a belter.
Far from their best last week and still just inches from winning it on the buzzer, I’m looking for a defensive response from the Panthers here. They failed to defend the errors they made in their own half against Easts but those 38 points conceded will be an outlier by season’s end if history is any indication.
In a low scoring grind, Melbourne have the combinations and players in this one to win a key moment or two. That’s all it’ll take.
Two difficult teams to get a read on after an inconsistent start to the year.
Easts beat themselves in Round 1 while the Warriors encountered a near-perfect Raiders side with a near-perfect gameplan. We got a better idea of what to expect from the Wahs in Round 2 while the Roosters red-lined to the tune of 38 points against the best defensive team in the modern era.
I like the Warriors middle to expose what has been a leaky Easts ruck defence to start the year.
Wayde Egan has the keys to the Warriors attack and a variety of options punching off his hip in yardage & good-ball. There’s try scorer value in this Wahs pack somewhere.
If Michael Maguire’s comments in the post-match last week were any indication, we’re going to see a response from the Broncos here.
Their pack profiles well to kick North Queensland’s front door down and allow Ben Hunt, Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh to get over the ad line in attack. The Cowboys edges have been exposed and targeted by a passive middle in both games to start the 2025 regular season and I’m tipping more of the same here.
Souths could be down to their fourth-choice starting lock for this one while the Cronulla Sharks currently play with one of the best forward packs in the competition.
The combination of Blayke Brailey and Addin Fonua-Blake around the ruck forces defensive lines to compress towards the ball, creating space on the edges for Braydon Trindall in particular to punish here.
Look for Trindall to swing late down the right edge and ballplay at the line for his backrower or centre.
The scoreboard suggests Wests clicked into gear last week but a lot of their poor decisions went unpunished by Parramatta in NRL Round 2.
While Redcliffe have arguably been the disappointment of the season so far, there should be enough footy IQ between Jeremy Marshall-King, Isaiya Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to capitalise on the pressure Wests put themselves under here.
It might be ugly but I like the Phins at home in this one.
A 20-minute period of Kalyn Ponga brilliance was the only thing separating Newcastle from a horrible Dolphins side last week. It’s still very much KP or nothing for the Knights attack right now and while the Gold Coast’s slow starts are becoming a concern, there’s value in them at home here.
The Jayden Campbell – AJ Brimson – Keano Kini combination is still in its infancy but even individually they pose more questions to the defence than Newcastle’s current spine. Providing Ponga is relatively contained, the Titans should have enough points in them at home.
Injuries to Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau severely hampered the Bulldogs attack last week. I’m interested to see how Canterbury replace Kikau in particular given how important he is to their systems as either the trigger or the target of an attacking shape.
It’s a friendly match up for the Dogs this week against an Eels outfit that is yet to throw a punch this season. In what could be a low scoring affair, the Bulldogs defence can win this comfortably.
Canberra are the form team in the competition right now while Manly’s two best players are under dark injury clouds.
The market is offering great value for the unbeaten Raiders and I’m happy to be with them here.
Their unorthodox attack has produced 30+ point scores in consecutive games to start the season as Ricky’s Raiders enjoy a license to attack from anywhere on the field. They spot and target cues in the defensive line better than any team in the competition right now and excel at dragging the game into a grind.
On form, Canberra are the team to beat right now barring a Tommy Turbo classic.