If trial form is any indication, this could be a long night for the boys from Bondi.
Michael Maguire’s new-look Broncos made a statement in the NRL Pre-Season Challenge, unveiling a polished and purposeful attack designed to put Reece Walsh into positive involvements on the edges.
Corey Paix won’t play on the ball like Billy Walters but his service is crisp to get Ben Hunt or Adam Reynolds over the ad-line at the B- or C-defenders. From there, either of Brisbane’s veteran halves can engage the line while Walsh swings into shape out the back. The depth Walsh used in these actions during the trials prevented the defence from jamming in, while his speed in the jockey position injected stress and panic into the defence.
The spaces around Robert Toia and Chad Townsend will surely be a target for Walsh and the Broncos attack here.
The Knights and Tigers have traded favouritism since the betting markets opened early in the week, but I think it’s settled correctly as of Thursday morning.
There’s plenty of anticipation around Wests this season and we should see a few glimpses of their attacking best in this one. Look for Jarome Luai to position Lachlan Galvin on the edges and play shot-for-shot in good-ball, moving Newcastle’s pack across the line. There are points in this Tigers attack (looking at their left edge here) but the Knights profile well to win this one with their defence.
Tyson Frizell is a nice addition in the middle while Dylan Lucas and Kai Pearce-Paul are a strong duo on the edges. All three have good lateral movement as they check-and-release in defence, while Kalyn Ponga organises their line expertly at the back.
Knights in a scrap.
Reports emerged during the week that Redcliffe may be without several stars in this one following a last-minute relocation to CommBank Stadium. If true, it levels the ledger slightly given the Rabbitohs are already without Cameron Murray and Latrell Mitchell to begin the year.
It makes for a difficult betting game in the H2H market, so I’ll take a stab at a few try scorers instead.
Souths have stacked their left edge with Cody Walker, Keaon Koloamatangi, Jack Wighton and Tyrone Munro all likely avenues to the try line. Most of their shape went down that corridor during the trials and it’s fair to expect more of the same from the Bunnies again here.
With Walker back in the side, I’m looking for him to hit Wighton on a double-lead shape or play out the back for Jye Gray & Munro.
For the Dolphins, Isaiya Katoa drifted smartly across the right edge a few times in the trials with Jamayne Isaako the beneficiary in the corner. It’s their most repeatable look in attack right now and it’s where my money’s going.
Canterbury were last year’s big improvers and there were equally promising signs from St George during this year’s trials.
The Dragons have a variety of shapes down their left edge designed to get the creative best out of Luciano Leilua, Clint Gutherson and Val Holmes. We didn’t see Christian Tuipulotu in the trials but he profiles as the major beneficiary of this new-look Dragons edge attack.
I think St George’s attack can trouble Canterbury here, provided they’ve got the resilience in defence to back it up. The Dragons can have some joy in the second phase given the defensive system Canterbury employ with smaller bodies and aggressive line speed.
St George-Illawarra will upset a few teams this year and I’m happy to back them in here.
I got hammered on the socials during the week for suggesting North Queensland are a value Wooden Spoon pick this season.
Their forward pack is aging and immobile while their backline is skinny and inexperienced. They struggled to win the ruck during the trials which left their edges isolated and under pressure – an area of strength for the Sea Eagles this year.
We know Manly can attack from anywhere on the field but it’s how they set up for a right edge shot that can be the difference here.
Haumole Olakau’atu is a serious problem with the ball in hand but his influence on the defence as a decoy is equally effective. The Sea Eagles produced a few different looks around their strike backrower last season and I’m looking for more of the same in this one.
There were positive signs for Parramatta in the trials but the reality is, this rebuild will take time. Jason Ryles is implementing new systems in a new-look squad and we saw those growing pains manifest particularly against Wests Tigers in Week 2 of the Pre-Season Challenge.
Ill-discipline and defence will be the focus for Parramatta to start the season and it will start with a steep learning curve at AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon.
The Storm are arguably the most disciplined and resilient team in the competition and profile well to maintain their Round 1 form here.
Harry Grant had some ominous moments in the trials, making the most of big Stephano Utoikamanu’s presence around the ruck. With so many threats across the park, I just can’t see the Eels going with Melbourne in Melbourne for long.