By the numbers
- Melbourne have won 10 of their past 11 games against the Roosters
- Joseph Manu threw 6 passes from 16 receipts last week, varying his involvements across the field between runner and distributor
- James Tedesco has 10 try involvements (five tries, five assists) from his last three appearances
- Melbourne’s first choice spine have played just nine games together this year for an 8-and-1 record
Deciding Factors
A more patient and disciplined Roosters attack last week is the blueprint for Easts coming into this one; they can’t afford to roll the dice every set in attack and risk gifting Melbourne cheap possession and field position. By completing their sets, turning the ball over in the right areas and getting the most out of a bruising forward rotation though, the Roosters can beat Melbourne at their own game here.
There will still be an element of risk involved in the best version of this Roosters attack. Their running threats in the second phase – James Tedesco, Joey Manu, Connor Watson and now Sandon Smith – demand that Easts take their opportunities to promote the ball. Getting the balance right between biding their time and releasing the offload will go a long way to deciding the yardage contest on Friday night.
For the Storm, they can do what they’ve done all year; work downfield cleanly, kick to corners and consistently convert field position into points. Jahrome Hughes has been the star of the season but the variety of questions Melbourne pose to the opposition at any given time is their point of difference; any one of Hughes, Cameron Munster, Harry Grant or Ryan Papenhuyen can cut you to pieces with a pass, kick or run.
Equally as capable of running up a score as they are of grinding Easts out of this one, the Melbourne Storm are thoroughly deserving favourites at home on Saturday night.
Try Scorer Percentage Plays
Like the man he is tasked with replacing, Sandon Smith is a small body in the line. He’s a willing defender but given the unfamiliar combinations on that Roosters right edge, I’m tipping that’s where Melbourne will look. Shawn Blore doesn’t score many but he runs a good line off his half while Jack Howarth has played himself into form and a starting finals jersey. Looking for this pair to shape up in double-lead formation in good-ball and feed off Munster’s ballplaying.
Storm tips: Jack Howarth try, Shawn Blore try
Easts won their way through to a preliminary final on the back of their physicality. That fast, aggressive style helped the Roosters dominate in yardage while on the edges it translated into half-breaks and offload opportunities through Joseph Sua’ali’i, in particular. With James Tedesco in a rich vein of form as still the best support player in the NRL, I like this pair to be involved in a highlight reel moment for Easts in this one.
Roosters tips: Joseph Sua’ali’i try, James Tedesco try
By the numbers
- Cronulla haven’t put a single point on Penrith across their last two matches
- The Sharks right edge ranks as the best defensive unit in the NRL this year when Jesse Ramien features at right centre
- The Panthers right edge this year has conceded the largest portion of tries (56%) of any defensive unit throughout Penrith’s five-year period of dominance
- Cronulla threw 18 offloads last week v North Queensland; more than double their season average of 9.3 per game
Deciding Factors
A Nathan Cleary-led Panthers attack is the best in the business at identifying and exposing weaknesses in the defensive line. They fall into shape with robotic-like precision and employ a variety of repeatable actions on either edge with the ball in hand. They don’t take as many risks in attack as rival teams but they don’t need to; they know what wins finals games and will be happy to clinch this by a penalty goal, if need be.
That being said, there is a chink in Cronulla’s armour in the spaces around Nicho Hynes and that’s where I’m expecting the Panthers to send most of their attack.
If Penrith can score early, they’ll go up a gear in defence & tackle and kick their way to full time. If the Sharks take the early lead though, look for Cleary to get on the ball and chip away at the defence before landing the killer blow.
For Cronulla, a host of powerful and productive outside backs can help to nullify Cleary’s kicking game here. Jesse Ramien, Kayal Iro, Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa all registered 20+ carries last week to earn their middles positive involvements midway through the set. Those big bodies were able to bust tackles and generate offloads through the middle of North Queensland’s defence last week thanks to the efforts of the Sharks outside backs early in the set.
How Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall finish those sets will also be key. Trindall in particular was superb on fifth tackle last week to consistently find the 10m x 10m box on the Cowboys line and Cronulla dominated in yardage as a result. Up against the best kick chase and kick return team in the NRL here, the Sharks general play kicking will have a major bearing on the result.
Try Scorer Percentage Plays
A relatively unfamiliar Panthers left edge of Luke Garner, Jarome Luai, Paul Alamoti and Sunia Turuva can be a target for the Sharks attack in this one. I’m looking for Hynes to take his opportunities down short sides and throw long while Ramien and Nikora hold up the defence with their preferred double-lead shape, or for Trindall sweeping over and hitting Nikora short while Hynes decoys out the back.
Sharks tips: Briton Nikora try, Siona Katoa try
We’ve know Cleary will take his chances with an early grubber whenever a defending fullback fills into the front line and I’m on the lookout for something similar here for either Garner or Alamoti. Isaah Yeo and/or Cleary isolating Hynes should be another feature of Penrith’s attack in this one; if they can get Hynes on an island, Jarome Luai can target the spaces around him with his footwork.
Panthers tips: Jarome Luai try, Paul Alamoti try