2024 NRL Best Bets | Finals Week 2

2024 NRL Best Bets | Finals Week 2

Cronulla Sharks
vs
North Queensland Cowboys
9:50pm, Friday 20 September | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks 1-12, Ronaldo Mulitalo try, Heilum Luki try

Inconsistency has plagued both the Cowboys and Sharks at different times – or in different moments in games – this season. Two of the best attacking teams in the NRL on their day, both Cronulla and North Queensland have been guilty at times of failing to do the little things early and earning their way into a contest.

For Cronulla, their attack has undergone considerable evolution this year while Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall were sidelined. They stumbled on a winning formula playing via Blayke Brailey through the middle of the field while Daniel Atkinson impressed beyond his years in a supporting playmaker role.

As convincing as the Sharks attack looked during that period, their ceiling is undoubtedly higher with Trindall and Hynes back in the side. Their ability to switch between first- and second-receiver allows Cronulla to play coast-to-coast in attack and ask multiple questions of the defence on either edge. Will Kennedy’s sweeping involvements from fullback lend itself to this approach, while elite line runners Teig Wilton and Briton Nikora help to straighten things up on the tram lines.

There’s a lot for the defence to consider when the Sharks set up for a shot, but as usual it all starts in the engine room. We saw what happened last week when Cronulla failed to work out of their own end cleanly; the Sharks attack was suffocated and they fell back into old habits playing ‘Nicho Ball’ on both sides of the field.

Briton Nikora’s try just before halftime in that game was a perfect example of how the best version of this Sharks attack looks.

A yardage penalty finally allowed Cronulla to work into attacking field position and they generated some momentum throughout the set via Kayal Iro on the left edge and big Tom Hazelton through the middle.

With Melbourne retreating and under fatigue, Hynes was able to skip across the field and get Trindall at a disrupted line on the Sharks right edge. A threatening double-lead shape featuring Nikora and Siosifa Talakai kept Cameron Munster wide in the line and allowed Trindall to isolate Shawn Blore and set up a beauty for his backrower:

https://x.com/NRL/status/1834849367066345859

The key takeaways from that scoring set; Hazelton generating some ruck speed early in the count, Brailey asking questions from behind a quick play-the-ball & Trindall and Hynes both sharing their time on the ball (two receipts each).

For North Queensland, their biggest opposition coming into Friday’s game is themselves.

On both sides of the ball, the Cowboys have developed an ugly habit of drifting in and out of games. Tiny lapses of concentration in defence and unforced errors when setting up for a shot killed North Queensland’s momentum in the first half against Newcastle last week, but we saw what they could do in the second half when they got it right.

Heilum Luki is causing a lot of problems for three- and four-in defenders down the Cowboys left edge as he enjoys a deserved run of good health. In front of Luki on Friday night will be Hynes – a regular target for attacking teams – and (hopefully) Jesse Ramien – who is a key contributor in what ranked as the best defensive edge in the NRL throughout the regular season.

The battle between the Cowboys lethal left edge attack and the Sharks resilient right edge defence will be a key storyline in this one.

Sydney Roosters
vs
Manly Sea Eagles
9:50pm, Saturday 21 September | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 1-12, Haumole Olakau’atu try, Daniel Tupou try

While the highlights reel from this one is bound to include some athletic heroics along either backline, I’m fizzing for the fireworks we should see through the middle of the field here.

Put simply, both the Roosters and Sea Eagles packs were monstered in Week One of the NRL Finals. Easts barely got out of first gear as the defending premiers kicked the front door down and bullied their way into attacking field position from the very first set, while Manly struggled to make adjustments as Matt Burton repeatedly kicked them into corners.

We’ve seen both Easts and Manly wrack up cricket scores this season courtesy of an expansive, high-risk attack but all of those winning performances have come on the back of a productive display from their forwards.

Enough has been said about the Roosters injury toll but they still boast the envy of most rival clubs through the middle of the field. Dynamic one-off the ruck or when punching holes on the edges, Easts have multiple offloading and tackle busting threats in their forward rotation and some of the best support players in the NRL to complement them in the second-phase. Penrith suffocated them out of the contest last week but it’s only fair to assume a response from the Roosters big men here.

There’s similarities between the two sides given the best version of this Sea Eagles attack usually starts with Taniela Paseka or Matt Lodge bending the line on plays one or two. From there, any of Lachlan Croker, Jake Trbojevic or Nathan Brown can get over the advantage line and compress the defence before shifting to the edges.

Tom Trbojevic is clearly busted but he can still be a net-positive across the 80 minutes (as he was last week). The key for Manly in this one is to better support the likes of ‘Turbo’ and Lehi Hopoate to get out of their red zone more efficiently. The less Manly’s forwards have to work back behind the ball, the more they can expend that energy carrying out of yardage.

If the game settles into a grind through the middle of the field, the kicking game of Daly Cherry-Evans can be the difference. He’s more accurate and gets more distance off the boot than Luke Keary or Sandon Smith who both struggled to kick the Roosters out of trouble last week.

Cherry-Evans is no stranger to winning moments or swinging momentum with an early yardage kick and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t try to turn the big bodies of Daniel Tupou and Dom Young around a few times in this one.

Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com