All the current evidence points towards this being the 2024 NRL Grand Final preview.
Melbourne have been anything but convincing over the last month while still doing enough to win. They’re still searching for the right balance in attack between Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster, who has returned from injury to a completely new Melbourne left edge featuring Shawn Blore, Jack Howarth and Grant Anderson. That being said, their defence is still top-tier and there is plenty of time to develop those combinations between now and September.
Penrith are dealing with team list changes themselves right now but a simply outrageous patch of form from Nathan Cleary has all but single-handedly won Penrith’s last four games.
The beauty of Cleary’s highlight reel, match-winning involvements is in their repeatability. Rather than reaching for miracle, ‘eyes up footy’ moments, Cleary is playing within Penrith’s systems to execute familiar and repeatable scoring actions while his teammates fall into shape around him.
On current form, Penrith deserve to be favourites here at home.
I loved the inclusion of Lachlan Croker for Manly last week and he helped to unlock the best version of this Sea Eagles attack.
With Daly Cherry-Evans feeding Haumole Olakau’atu on the right and Jake Trbojevic linking with Luke Brooks on the left, Croker took smart options from behind the ruck while ‘Turbo’ roamed across the field. The result was a 46-point rout of the Raiders and I think they can do similar things to a disconnected Warriors defensive line here.
The Wahs let another agonisingly winnable game slip last week which all but ended their slim finals hopes. The lack of cohesion across their decimated lineup should present some chances for Manly’s expansive attack in this one, barring a Shaun Johnson-inspired upset.
Parramatta have shown some fight in recent weeks but I’m all over Easts here. They’ve been expensive to back on potential in the past, but fresh off the bye and after a week of fine tuning their attack, I’m happy to tip a Roosters whitewash in this one.
Victor Radley’s seemingly innocuous move to the edge was a crucial moment in the evolution of this Roosters attack. Not only is he a wonderful defensive bodyguard for Sam Walker, but he also runs a great line and is a genuine grubber kick target for his halfback in good-ball
Clint Gutherson is one of the hardest working fullbacks in the game but that can be used against him. Walker has a killer short kicking game and has shown he isn’t afraid to roll the dice early in a set. I’m looking for him to punish Gutherson for filling up in the front line at some point in this one.
A productive backline and the boot of Matt Burton kept Canterbury in the game last week. Every time St George-Illawarra looked like trapping the Bulldogs in their own end, Burton would flog it 50+ metres on the fly and get his team out of trouble.
Burton’s big boot has a flow-on effect in Canterbury’s yardage game. The cheap metres he earns in the air are metres the Bulldogs lighter pack doesn’t have to fight for on the ground, allowing them to front-load their efforts in defence.
Redcliffe on the other hand are struggling through the middle right now as injuries and fatigue take its toll. Sean O’Sullivan’s miracle field goal in NRL Round 22 saved what would have been yet another second-half capitulation from the Dolphins in recent weeks and I can’t see them going with Canterbury here.
Redcliffe’s ill-discipline is compounding the pressure and fatigue they’re playing under while Canterbury have built their season around embracing the grind. This only reads as a Bulldogs win.
North Queensland were dominated physically by Brisbane last week while Canberra were simply outclassed by a red-hot Sea Eagles attack.
Both sides will be looking to respond this week but it’s the Cowboys who have more upside here. They’ve produced some nice new looks in their attack recently, namely through Chad Townsend, Scott Drinkwater and Jeremiah Nanai on the right edge but it’s their defence that will be the focus this week.
Jason Taumalolo is still sidelined but Sam McIntyre has been a wonderful servant for North Queensland this season and gets through a tonne of work off the ball. If the Cowboys can tighten up through the middle and hold their own in the ruck, the boot of Jake Clifford will help them win the yardage battle.
The Raiders are without Jordan Rapana this week which sees a reshuffle in the halves and backline. They’re never easy-beats and will try to make this ugly, but I’m not sure they’ve got the repeatable actions in their attack to go with North Queensland in this one.
We looked for the value in Wests last week but a couple of flukey Knights tries saw Newcastle pull away in the end. I’m taking us back to the well today though and backing the Tigers to keep it close-ish against my decimated Bunnies.
South Sydney are well and truly on their last legs. Horribly disconnected and immobile on the edges, the spaces around Richie Kennar and Taane Milne can be a spot for Wests again this week as they were for Melbourne in NRL Round 23. We’ve seen the Tigers shift the ball out of yardage at different times this season and they can have some joy isolating Jahream Bula onto Souths slower edges as the Storm did with Ryan Papenhuyzen last week.
St George-Illawarra were beaten at their own game last week while the Titans never came out of the sheds.
Canterbury applied pressure with their defence and the scoreboard to grind the Dragons into errors and limited their positive looks in attack. It’s an approach St George have adopted in all of their winning performances this season and with a W/L record for most of the year, I’m backing a response here.
Moses Suli’s absence is offset by Jack Bird’s return while the Gold Coast will miss Moeaki Fotuaika and Beau Fermor in the pack again this week. Fermor’s defensive involvements are crucial on the Titans right edge and the spaces around Klese Haas can be a spot for Luciano Leilua, Tyrell Sloan and the Dragons attack in this one.
Cronulla were allowed to execute a very specific game plan last week. With Blayke Brailey attacking at hooker and defending on the edge while Daniel Atkinson ran the show as the lone half, the Sharks were only ever going straight through the front door in NRL Round 23 and are named to do the same again here.
Will the Knights middle – an area of strength for Newcastle this season – fold as easily as the Gold Coast’s did last week though? They will know what’s coming this time and must be prepared to get in the grind and fight for momentum around the ruck if they’re to generate as many looks in attack as they did against the Tigers.
Wests made the Knights attack look good last week but the jury is still out on Tyson Gamble and Phoenix Crossland as Newcastle’s best-choice halves pairing. If they can isolate Kalyn Ponga onto the defending half consistently as they did last week, ‘KP’ is good enough to win this one for the Knights.
If it gets in a grind through, I’m leaning towards the Sharks pack in scrap.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com