The Wests Tigers are limping down the home straight and it doesn’t get any easier in NRL Round 22. Young Lachlan Galvin is trying hard in an on-the-ball role but fights an uphill battle each week behind a pack that is consistently getting beaten through the middle of the field.
The Cowboys on the other hand are finding ways to win on the back of a much improved forward rotation – something they weren’t doing to begin the season. They’ve tightened things up around the ruck to correct what was one of the worst middle defences in the NRL to start the year – although the absence of Reuben Cotter and Jason Taumalolo this week will test their depth. On the back of their improvements through the middle, North Queensland have afforded themselves the chance to generate some repeatable attacking actions on either edge. Tom Dearden, Valentine Holmes and Murray Taulagi are a likely trio on the left edge while Chad Townsend and Jeremiah Nanai present a variety of shapes on the right.
Wests are a chance to keep this close given North Queensland’s outs but I can’t see the Cowboys letting this one slip.
Wahs fans have been calling for Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to move to fullback all year but Head Coach Andrew Webster offered some nice insight in the presser last week.
While RTS’s physicality and sheer ability consistently makes for highlight reel plays (he had multiple individual try saving involvements in NRL Round 21), he is still developing his communication and reads when organising a defensive line. I like Tuivasa-Sheck’s inclusion on the wing this week while Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad offers genuine fullback involvements on both sides of the ball with the No.1 on his back.
New Zealand profile nicely against Parramatta in this one given their strengths around the ruck.
The Eels are collapsing through the middle of late which stresses their edges into poor decisions or breakdowns in spacing. With Wayde Egan holding up ruck defenders and Shaun Johnson returning to throw the last pass in the second-layer of a shift, the Warriors preferred right edge looks a likely avenue to the tryline here.
The Dolphins are free-falling right now with just one win (against a horrible South Sydney side) from their last five matches. They’re starting well enough but without some key contributors in the forward pack, Redcliffe are getting beaten in yardage once fatigue sets in.
Given the makeup of Easts forward rotation in this one, it could be another long night for the Dolphins. Sydney choked last week against Manly but their attack in the opening 30 minutes was consistent with their NRL-high 29 points per game average. They play with the highest attacking ceiling in the competition but playing to it consistently has been the challenge and I’m expecting a response following their second-half capitulation in NRL Round 21.
This should be a physical battle early but I’m tipping Easts to pull away in the second half.
The Titans did all the little things right to run down Redcliffe last week. They completed highly, kicked to the corners, dominated field position and eventually cashed in via some repeatable actions through Jayden Campbell, David Fifita and Alofiana Khan-Periera on their left edge.
Brisbane on the other hand continue to beat themselves. With an average 12.5 errors and 5.1 penalties per game over the last eight weeks, the Broncos ill discipline has cost them a spot in the 2024 NRL finals series. Most concerning however is their collapse against Canterbury last week despite finishing with less errors and less penalties. Their inability to adjust to the Bulldogs expansive yardage approach saw them leak 11 line breaks and 41 points – their worst result of the season.
The Gold Coast have been more comfortable in the grind over the last two months and the involvements of Keano Kini down their right edge could be the difference.
This will be only the sixth time this season we see Melbourne start a game with their first-choice spine.
We saw glimpses of their attacking best last week as the speed of Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes caused plenty of issues for Parramatta’s edges in yardage. If they roll into good-ball as easily again this week, watch for Harry Grant to scheme from dummy-half and target Tyrell Sloan filling up at A-defender in the front line. Shane Flanagan has made no secret of Sloan’s defensive shortcomings and it’s sure to be an area of focus for both teams in this one.
The Dragons as a whole are tracking nicely but were beaten physically (- 800m yardage differential) by Penrith last week. We’ve seen St George respond smartly to losses all year but I can’t see them going the distance with Melbourne here.
They let a winnable game slip but the Sharks had some promising moments last week through Braydon Trindall and Blayke Brailey. They enjoyed some luck on a few tries but there’s enough points in this Cronulla attack to remain finals relevant until Nicho Hynes returns. Will Kennedy is a big inclusion at fullback this week – particularly with the work he does off the ball – while the Sharks pack still has another few gears to go.
South Sydney on the other hand are playing to about their potential right now. There are still some defensive improvements required but the reality of this Rabbitohs squad is that they are missing nine starting calibre players.
The wheels have fallen off this Newcastle Knights attack. Their pack is performing well enough but there are still no obvious combinations or repeatable actions in their attacking systems – highlighted by a throw-at-the-dart-board move to halfback for Phoenix Crossland this week. The Knights attack should be as simple as putting Kalyn Ponga into positive involvements down the tram lines but something continues to go wrong between the ruck and first receiver.
It couldn’t be a more different story for the Panthers. Already the best drilled team in the comp, the defending premiers last week welcomed back the best halfback in the NRL and posted 46 points as a result. It should be a rinse and repeat in this one.
A sold out house in Belmore will round out NRL Round 22 as the Bulldogs host the Raiders in an interesting tactical matchup.
We saw a new look from the Bulldogs attack last week as they shifted out of yardage to repeatedly burn a compressed Brisbane defence on the edges. It’s not unusual for a team to tighten up their line early in the count but Brisbane – and Canberra this week – do it more so than most. Given the Raiders will know what’s coming this time around, how both teams adjust in yardage will be a curious tactical battle.
While the Bulldogs have shown they can score points, they’ll want to drag this one into a grind as they’ve done all season. Given that’s where Canberra usually does some of their best work, I’m tipping a close one.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com